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Reference Class and Parametric Estimating for Project Managers

Optimistic bottom up estimates are a major reason projects overrun, because teams underestimate what they cannot yet see. This course teaches reference class and parametric estimating, using data from past projects to produce more honest cost and time forecasts. It draws on African capital and infrastructure project data to ground the techniques.

What you will be able to do

  • Explain why bottom up estimates tend to be optimistic.
  • Build reference classes from comparable past projects.
  • Apply reference class forecasting to adjust base estimates.
  • Develop parametric estimates using cost and time drivers.
  • Combine methods to cross check and strengthen estimates.
  • Present estimate ranges and assumptions to decision makers.

Course outline

  1. 01Why estimates go wrong
  2. 02Estimating methods compared
  3. 03Building reference classes
  4. 04Reference class forecasting in practice
  5. 05Parametric estimating and drivers
  6. 06Cross checking and combining methods
  7. 07Estimate ranges and assumptions
  8. 08Presenting estimates to decision makers

Who should attend

Project managers, estimators, cost engineers and planners who prepare or review cost and schedule estimates for projects and business cases.

Dates, venues and fees

DatesVenueDaysFeeCalendar
17 to 18 Aug 2026Kampala2US$1,100
24 to 25 Aug 2026Dar es Salaam2US$1,100
31 Aug to 1 Sep 2026Pretoria2R10,000
7 to 8 Sep 2026Cape Town2R10,000
21 to 22 Sep 2026Online2US$900
28 to 29 Sep 2026Mozambique2US$1,100
5 to 6 Oct 2026Cairo2US$1,100
12 to 13 Oct 2026Accra2US$1,100
19 to 20 Oct 2026Lusaka2US$1,100
26 to 27 Oct 2026Kigali2US$1,100
2 to 3 Nov 2026Nairobi2US$1,100
9 to 10 Nov 2026Durban2R10,000
16 to 17 Nov 2026Johannesburg2R10,000
30 Nov to 1 Dec 2026Mauritius2US$1,100
7 to 8 Dec 2026Dubai2US$1,100
14 to 15 Dec 2026Lagos2US$1,100
21 to 22 Dec 2026Harare2US$1,100

Fees are per delegate. South African venues are priced in rand; other locations and online in US dollars. Fees exclude 15% VAT where applicable. Group bookings of three or more delegates from the same organisation qualify for a reduced rate; contact us for a quotation.

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