Skip to content

Quantitative Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Modelling

Moves risk practitioners beyond heat maps into quantifying exposure using distributions, scenario analysis and simulation. Delegates learn to model cost and schedule uncertainty, aggregate risks, and present numeric ranges that support better decisions. Worked examples reflect capital projects, operational losses and financial exposures in African organisations.

What you will be able to do

  • Explain when and why to quantify risk rather than rely on ratings.
  • Select appropriate probability distributions for uncertain variables.
  • Build simulation models for cost, schedule and loss exposure.
  • Interpret simulation outputs and confidence ranges for decisions.
  • Aggregate correlated risks across a portfolio or project.
  • Communicate quantitative results to non technical decision makers.

Course outline

  1. 01Limits of Qualitative Risk Rating
  2. 02Probability and Distribution Basics
  3. 03Building Monte Carlo Models
  4. 04Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
  5. 05Operational and Financial Loss Modelling
  6. 06Correlation and Portfolio Aggregation
  7. 07Interpreting and Presenting Results
  8. 08Embedding Quantitative Risk in Decisions

Who should attend

Risk managers, project controls professionals, actuaries, finance analysts and internal auditors seeking quantitative risk skills.

Dates, venues and fees

DatesVenueDaysFeeCalendar
17 to 19 Aug 2026Lusaka3US$1,500
24 to 26 Aug 2026Kigali3US$1,500
31 Aug to 2 Sep 2026Nairobi3US$1,500
7 to 9 Sep 2026Durban3R13,000
14 to 16 Sep 2026Johannesburg3R13,000
28 to 30 Sep 2026Mauritius3US$1,500
5 to 7 Oct 2026Dubai3US$1,500
12 to 14 Oct 2026Lagos3US$1,500
19 to 21 Oct 2026Harare3US$1,500
26 to 28 Oct 2026Kampala3US$1,500
2 to 4 Nov 2026Dar es Salaam3US$1,500
9 to 11 Nov 2026Pretoria3R13,000
16 to 18 Nov 2026Cape Town3R13,000
30 Nov to 2 Dec 2026Online3US$900
7 to 9 Dec 2026Mozambique3US$1,500
14 to 16 Dec 2026Cairo3US$1,500
21 to 23 Dec 2026Accra3US$1,500

Fees are per delegate. South African venues are priced in rand; other locations and online in US dollars. Fees exclude 15% VAT where applicable. Group bookings of three or more delegates from the same organisation qualify for a reduced rate; contact us for a quotation.

Related courses in Governance, Risk and Compliance

Governance, Risk and Compliance

Corporate Governance and Board Effectiveness

Good governance is judged by outcomes, not by the length of the board pack. Director duties under the Companies Act 71 of 2008 and the...

Next session
31 Aug to 2 Sep 2026
Venue
Lusaka
3 day programme
FromUS$900
Governance, Risk and Compliance

Enterprise Risk Management in Practice

Enterprise risk management goes wrong when it stays a policy document. Delegates define risk appetite, build registers that management...

Next session
31 Aug to 4 Sep 2026
Venue
Mozambique
5 day programme
FromUS$900
Governance, Risk and Compliance

Compliance, Ethics and Anti-Corruption

Compliance programmes fail when they exist only on paper. Building a compliance universe, embedding an ethical culture, running a credible...

Next session
31 Aug to 2 Sep 2026
Venue
Cape Town
3 day programme
FromUS$900
See all Governance, Risk and Compliance courses